During this time in the Presidential election cycle, we as Americans can sometimes be filled with the feeling of hope. So many politicians have thrown their hat in the ring to run for President, and we now get to hear their own ideas for running the country.
During this election campaign, the political left is bringing us Bernie Sanders, someone who has been building momentum as he talks about all the evils of big business, and how the government isn’t doing enough for the poor. While Bernie is, generally speaking, not considered to be the greatest friend to the business community, his ideas on ending massive government subsidies to powerful individuals, companies, and industries would be a step that many conservatives might even embrace.
Then on the conservative side we have Donald Trump, who while being very outspoken and not politically correct, can shoot himself in the foot sometimes with whatever he decides to say in the moment. Donald’s opinions echo what many people believe nowadays, as well as echo the outrage that they’re feeling over many of the things that have been going on. But do we think that Donald will be able to successfully navigate the mine field of both politics and media scrutiny, to eventually land the Republican nomination?
The good news about upcoming Presidential elections is they give people hope for change. At this moment in time, people can oftentimes find one Presidential candidate who they believe reflects their own views, and then they can rally behind that person.
In addition, as far as the business world is concerned, normally in the year leading up to the Presidential election when the economy is already doing good, it continues to do so through the election. So since we already have a history of this, the chances are good that at least business wise, things will be doing OK.
For people in commercial real estate, we generally want to see property appreciating, good financing being available, and a healthy level of transactions going on. While the economic downturn hit us hard, the recovery, generally speaking, has had us doing considerably better than we were doing during the downturn. With this in mind, while we know that the market comes and goes in cycles, it’s unlikely that we will experience another severe economic downturn before the next election. You’d be hard pressed to find solid economic forecasters who are indicating this on their own radar screens right now.
In addition, as we move through the Presidential election season, it will become clearer who our final two nominees will be from the two major political parties. Traditionally, the majority of people in business, including people who are invested in commercial real estate, normally rally behind the Republican Party. So as long as there are one or more Republican candidates moving through the primaries that the Republicans can get really excited about, this will help to boost their expectations around where this economy is headed. But then again, the economy did pretty well when Bill Clinton was President, too.
One important factor that will really be driving people is their underlying hope for change. We will definitely be having a new President in the White House, and that anticipation has many people feeling excited about the future. This excitement, combined with an economy that traditionally does well when we’re approaching the Presidential election, indicates that despite some normal fluctuations, commercial real estate should continue to do well during this Presidential election season.